Author : Maymay Maysarah
The Iran-Saudi deal, signed in Beijing on March 10, 2023, attracted international attention and mixed reactions. Some analysts have emphasized how this deal reaffirms China’s growing influence in the Middle East and how Washington has lost influence in recent years due to Beijing’s aggressive engagement with Saudi Arabia and Iran (Maini, 2023). Some analysts also point to US foreign policy towards the Middle East. In an article for Foreign Policy titled “Saudi-Arabian détente is a wake-up call for America,” Stephen M. Walt explained that China was able to mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran because it “has friendly, business-like relations with most countries in the world.” this area.” Walt also emphasized that while the United States has “special relationships” with some Middle Eastern countries, it does not have them with other countries. As a result, countries like Saudi Arabia have taken “US support” for granted. In addition, Walt argues that the policy of isolating Iran is unsuccessful (Walt, 2023).
Positively, the agreement can be considered a historical strategic agreement, reflecting the massive transformation that is currently taking place in West Asia and the world. That is best considered a “truce agreement” between the two main adversaries, creating space for direct and regular dialogue. The joint statement issued by China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran had significant consequences beyond improving relations between Tehran and Riyadh, which had been severed in 2016 (Illaik, 2023).
The statement is obvious (Illaik, 2023):
- The Embassies of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran will reopen in less than two months.
- Respect the sovereignty of the state.
- Activate the security cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran signed in 2001.
- Activate cooperation agreements in the economy, trade, investment, technology, science, culture, sports, and youth signed between the parties in 1998.
- Urges the three countries to exert all efforts to promote regional and international peace and security.
The first four terms of the China-brokered pact normalize relations between the two fierce rivals. However, the fifth clause is usually not included in such intergovernmental agreements. It appears to establish a new reference point for the West Asian crisis in which China plays a “peacemaker” role – in cooperation with Iran and Saudi Arabia – where Beijing plays a role in various regional disputes or influencing related parties.
Although a senior Chinese diplomat with extensive experience in the Middle East warns that this needs to be viewed realistically, China’s achievements in negotiating a new détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran are remarkable. According to Wu Sike, China’s former special envoy for Middle East affairs, this will not usher in an era of Chinese intervention in the region’s complicated affairs. Chinese diplomacy in the region is unlikely to be able to help with issues such as negotiating a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. China’s diplomatic engagement follows recent discussions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which Iraq mediated (Ritter, 2023).
The two factions have taken opposing stances and are participating in proxy battles in various Middle East crisis zones. Eight years into the conflict in Yemen, Riyadh led a military coalition to support the government, while Tehran supported the Houthi rebels. Since 2021, officials from Iraq and Oman have met to discuss potential cooperation, but no agreement has been finalized. According to Robert Mogielnicki, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, DC, the deal is a testament to China’s growing presence and interest in playing a role in the region, which Al Jazeera reported. He argued that China is “in a good position to broker a deal” with Iran because the US does not have good relations with Iran.
Since China does not invest in specific outcomes, Mogielnicki argues that engaging in these activities carries minimal risks but has the potential to generate significant returns (Gadzo, 2023).
The potential for war and tension in the region will be reduced if diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are strengthened. That benefits China, the United States, and regional players because the gulf is an important energy source for Beijing, which imports energy from Iran and Saudi Arabia, a non-resident senior scholar at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, Sina Toossi, told Al Jazeera that China has a “clear interest” in improving connections and stability in the region. The most significant weekend rise in global oil prices this year in over a decade came after the Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations, momentarily disrupting the country’s oil output. Toossi warns that this is “the worst-case scenario for China,” as it threatens China’s energy supply and economic interests in the event of a confrontation in the Persian Gulf (Gadzo, 2023).
The author examines from a geopolitical point of view that the agreement may mark the beginning of a new era of China’s economic participation with the two most important Gulf countries in the Middle East. If the deal is implemented, China’s Belt and Road Initiative will play an even more significant role in Saudi Arabia and Iran’s economic and social development. That is a classic example of a regional shift from West to East.
Undoubtedly, China’s already positive image in the Global South will be further strengthened, increasing Beijing’s geopolitical influence beyond the Indo-Pacific. Oil-hungry China has long been reluctant to play a political role in the Middle East, relying more on its formidable economic network. However, Beijing is now ready to use its economic weight to improve its geopolitical position, which has been boosted by its Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, the deal challenges the dominant US geopolitical influence and relevance in the Middle East. In particular, it will reduce the region’s traditional dependence on Washington. That is worrying for the US. Several geopolitical points will be examined as follows (Islam, 2023):
First, every country should pay more attention to the rapidly changing world and accept and adapt to the winds of change blowing across the planet. Simply put, each country must be prepared to adapt its policies to the game-changing transformations that are taking place not only in Asia but also in many other countries in the Global South.
The author sees that the long era of the Western-dominated international system is crumbling, not least because the regulators have turned away from the agreements they made. The emerging multipolar world is unpredictable, unstable, and fragile. It is also constantly changing as countries select their partners – and identify their rivals – not based on Western wants and demands but on their interests. As demonstrated by the Iran-Saudi deal, Saudi Arabia’s leaders are trying hard to diversify their foreign relations and avoid over-reliance on the US. Separately, India may be on the West’s side when it comes to hitting China – but it is not accepting US, and EU demands to stop buying oil from Russia or sanctioning Moscow for its war in Ukraine.
Second, this uncertain and unpredictable new world order seems frightening and dangerous. However, it is essential to remember that geopolitical positions will see a new multipolar world emerge.
Third, a transatlantic alliance toward an unknown, louder, and more contested world has occurred this time.
Fourth, geopolitical narratives that speak the language of democracy, ideals, and values are outdated and discredited. Dividing the world into good democracies and bad autocracies does not help.
Fifth, every nation must participate in the chaotic merry-go-round of a world where alternating partners are emerging, and this will become the new norm in the geopolitical world. In other words, any country that survives and can foresee these geopolitics will remain an actor on this global scene, not just a regional actor; it is time to move from neat and well-managed parks to wild but exciting forests.
The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia reached in Beijing on March 10, 2023, influences world geopolitics. The analysis results have shown that Beijing’s aggressive engagement with Saudi Arabia and Iran in recent years has diminished Washington’s clout and that this pact confirms China’s growing influence in the Middle East.
References
Gadzo, M. (2023). Changing global order: China’s hand in the Iran-Saudi deal. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/11/changing-global-order-china-restores-ties-with-iran-and-saudi
Illaik, H. (2023). Exclusive: The hidden security clauses of the Iran-Saudi deal. https://thecradle.co/article-view/22445/exclusive-the-hidden-security-clauses-of-the-iran-saudi-deal
Islam, S. (2023). The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just The Middle East. https://www.bic-rhr.com/research/china-brokered-iran-saudi-deal-could-re-order-global-politics-not-just-middle-east
Maini, T. S. (2023). Iran-Saudi Agreement: The Need to Look Beyond US-China Rivalry. https://thegeopolitics.com/iran-saudi-agreement-the-need-to-look-beyond-us-china-rivalry/
Ritter, S. (2023). Game Changer: How China’s Iran-Saudi Deal Transforms Geopolitics. https://www.energyintel.com/00000187-0500-da79-a9f7-7daa2dea0000
Walt, S. M. (2023). Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/14/saudi-iranian-detente-china-united-states/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors Picks OC&utm_term=73990&tpcc=Editors Picks OC
