AUKUS and Its Implications for Indonesia

On September 15, 2021, the United States (US), the United Kingdom, and Australia officially joined forces to form a security alliance known as AUKUS. This pact involves bilateral security cooperation, including helping Australia build a nuclear submarine at the Adelaide Naval Base (The Guardian, 2022). According to the British newspaper, this action is one of the first responses to China’s presence and activities in the South China Sea. “This will include an intensive examination of what we need to do to carry out our nuclear stewardship responsibilities in Australia,” said Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia (The White House, 2021).

According to a web article by contributor EurasiaReview, this mentality has come under the “big spotlight” due to the increasing power of China, which plays a crucial role in the conflict. The foundation of AUKUS has been labeled “irresponsible acts” by China, which does not recognize UNCLOS but defies the nine-dash line as a potential danger to regional stability in Asia Pacific (Pashya, 2021). Speaking to the press, Zhao Lijian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said, “The nuclear submarine cooperation between the US, Britain, and Australia has seriously undermined regional peace and stability, intensified the arms race, and undermined international non-proliferation efforts (Nagasawa, Tsuyoshi & Hadano, 2021).

Teuku Faizasyah, the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, has voiced his country’s concerns over the projection of power related to the formation of AUKUS and arms competition in the region (CNN Indonesia, 2021). According to the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia has repeatedly requested that Australia carry out its commitments under the nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime and the Protection of the International Atomic Energy Agency. (IAEA), as well as agreeing to an efficient, open, and impartial IAEA verification system (CNN Indonesia, 2023). The Indonesian government has clear reasons to be wary because increased weapons development activities by AUKUS countries can easily trigger regional conflicts.

The author analyzes that this deal will inadvertently lead to an ‘underwater war’ between China and the US. It will legally provide Canberra with its first nuclear-powered submarine, strengthen Australia’s naval capabilities, and increase the intensity of influence of US allies in the region. US President Joe Biden said, “Our nation will renew and enhance our collective ability to confront the threats of the 21st century, just as we did in the 20th century (White House East Room, 2021).” The two countries see each other as a threat and an ally. The dynamics of conflict and friendship between the two countries have shifted many times. The author observes that these comments suggest that Biden is setting China up as one of the most significant challenges of the 21st century.

Most recently, Australia will buy 5 American Virginia Class nuclear propulsion attack submarines (SSN) in the 2030s and build its own SSN based on Britain’s Astute Class (Idriss Ali et al., 2023). Australia will station its nuclear submarines in Perth, Australia. Furthermore, during the waiting period for Australian submarines in 2030, the United States and Britain will station their Nuclear Submarines in Australia.

AUKUS’ latest move has both positive and harmful consequences for Indonesia.

Positive side

Rezasyah, an expert on international relations, claims that Indonesia can buy conventional Australian vessels at low prices. Rezasyah believes that Indonesia can benefit from the new AUKUS policy. One of them, Indonesia can buy conventional vessels currently owned by Australia. Indonesia can also invite Australia to intervene, discuss issues of mutual interest, and seek clarification. Indonesia has the right to voice its displeasure with AUKUS and ask AUKUS to explain whether this (defense pact) is a war scenario or to advance technological development (CNN Indonesia, 2023).

Meanwhile, the bilateral cooperation between Indonesia and Australia has been going on for years and has developed into a strong foundation. Until the 2+2 meeting between the Indonesian Defense Minister and the Australian Defense Minister, the agreement will be known as the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA). Rezasyah stated that Indonesia has high confidence in Australia not to target Indonesia with nuclear weapons because of the close relationship between the two countries. He claims that Indonesia can rely on these nuclear submarines for its future defense. They are similar to “sea ghosts” that move under thrilling oceans, primarily when powered by nuclear energy (CNN Indonesia, 2023).

Negative side

This AUKUS action threatens the security of Indonesia. When another country’s military increases, placing a country in a security dilemma means it needs to increase its security measures (Wivel, 2011). The need to counteract other nations’ military might will always be there, as all nations are ultimately looking for the same thing. The author examines that Indonesia cannot choose between AUKUS and China. Indonesia can count on China as a reliable long-term strategic partner. China has helped Indonesia by giving them access to its vaccines and supporting Indonesia’s role as a regional hub in Southeast Asia. Indonesia’s main trading partners are China and Hong Kong. On the other hand, Indonesia also has significant relationships with AUKUS member countries. Indonesia’s countermeasures against China may benefit from the presence of AUKUS.

In theoretical realism, an anarchic structure would not have a central government on the entire planet. Because we cannot predict who will attack us in the future, each country must be able to ensure its safety and survival (Wivel, 2011). That certainly makes Indonesia’s position weaker in the region. That requires Indonesia to strengthen its ability to rebalance or launch preemptive strikes on other countries.

In increasing its capabilities, Indonesia has two options. The first option, spiral security, stipulates that all countries can increase their strength and defense spending equally. The second option inevitably results in armed conflict. The Indonesian military must be strengthened. According to the latest data, Indonesia is more likely to maintain the same number of weapons than to increase its military strength (Nurfauzi et al., 2022).

That may explain why, whenever discussing AUKUS, the Indonesian media almost always raise the possible harm it could do to ASEAN’s significance and neutrality. Some have voiced concern about the agreement’s impact on the principles of Indonesia’s free and active foreign policy, as well as on the Declaration of the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality and the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Agreement. In addition, this can also make Indonesia trapped in the “AUKUS block.” Through its long leadership in ASEAN, Indonesia has contributed to the regional security architecture, which seeks to reduce the domination of significant powers and promote stability through collective leadership. The arrival of AUKUS has weakened this because it was done without informing Indonesia or ASEAN. That sends a message to Indonesia that the big powers do not consider Indonesia or other ASEAN countries necessary for their regional security.

The security alliance known as AUKUS was formed between the United States of America (USA), Britain, and Australia. As part of the agreement, the United States will assist Australia in building nuclear submarines at the Adelaide Naval Base. Indonesia has expressed displeasure with creating AUKUS and the subsequent arms race in the region. There are clear reasons for Indonesia to be concerned about the increasing weapons development efforts among AUKUS countries and their potential to trigger a regional conflict. AUKUS’ actions in the region have positive and negative impacts on Indonesia, as the analysis above shows.